Text3Couldthebadolddaysofeconomicdeclinebeabouttoreturn?SinceOPECagreedtosupply-cutsinMarch,thepriceofcrudeoilhasjumpedtoalmost$26abarrel,upfromlessthan$10lastDecember.Thisnear-tr iplingofoilpricescallsupscarymemoriesofthe1973oilshock,whenpricesquadrupled,and1979-80,whentheyalsoalmosttr ipled.Bothpreviousshocksresultedindouble-digitinflationandglobaleconomicdecline.Sowherearetheheadlineswarningofgloomanddoomthistime?
TheoilpricewasgivenanotherpushupthisweekwhenIraqsuspendedoilexports.Str engtheningeconomicgrowth,atthesametimeaswintergripsthenorthernhemisphere,couldpushthepricehigherstillintheshortterm.
Yettherearegoodreasonstoexpecttheeconomicconsequencesnowtobelessseverethaninthe1970s.Inmostcountr iesthecostofcrudeoilnowaccountsforasmallershareofthepriceofpetr olthanitd idinthe1970s.InEurope,taxesaccountforuptofour-fifthsoftheretailprice,soevenquitebigchangesinthepriceofcrudehaveamoremutedeffectonpumppricesthaninthepast.
Richeconomiesarealsolessdependentonoilthantheywere,andsolesssensitivetoswingsintheoilprice.Energyconservation,ashifttootherfuelsandadeclineintheimportanceofheavy,energy-intensiveindustr ieshavereducedoilconsumption.Software,consultancyandmobiletelephonesusefarlessoilthansteelorcarproduction.ForeachdollarofGDP(inconstantprices)richeconomiesnowusenearly50%lessoilthanin1973.TheOECDestimatesinitslatestEconomicOutlookthat,ifoilpricesaveraged$22abarrelforafullyear,comparedwith$13in1998,thiswouldincreasetheoilimportbillinricheconomiesbyonly0.25-0.5%ofGDP.Thatislessthanone-quarteroftheincomelossin1974or1980.Ontheotherhand,oil-importingemergingeconomies--towhichheavyindustr yhasshifted-havebecomemoreenergy-intensive,andsocouldbemoreseriouslysqueezed.
Onemorereasonnottolosesleepovertheriseinoilpricesisthat,unliketherisesinthe1970s,ithasnotoccurredagainstthebackgroundofgeneralcommodity-priceinflationandglobalexcessdemand.Asizableportionoftheworldisonlyjustemergingfromeconomicdecline.TheEconomist'scommoditypriceindexisbroadlyunchangingfromayearago.In1973commoditypricesjumpedby70%,andin1979byalmost30%.
第51题：Themainreasonforthelatestr iseofoilpriceis
Aglobalinflation.
Breductioninsupply.
Cfastgrowthineconomy.
DIraq'ssuspensionofexports.
正确答案：B
