隐马尔可夫

#第一天的概率
P = {'s': 0.4, 'r': 0.6, }

#前一天的天气条件下，今天的各种天气的概率
CP = {'ss': 0.6, 'rr': 0.7, 
		'sr': 0.4, 'rs': 0.3}
		
#不同天气下，各种行为的概率
MP = {'rw': 0.1, 'rs': 0.4, 
		'rc': 0.5, 'sw': 0.6,
		 'ss': 0.3,'sc': 0.1}

#第一天
p11 = 1 * P['s'] * MP['sw']
p12 = 1 * P['r'] * MP['rw']
print(max(p11, p12))

#第二天
p21 = max(p11 * CP['ss'] * MP['ss'], p12 * CP['rs'] * MP['ss'])
p22 = max(p11 * CP['sr'] * MP['rs'], p12 * CP['rr'] * MP['rs'])
print(max(p21, p22))

#第三天
p31 = max(p21 * CP['ss'] * MP['sc'], p22 * CP['rs'] * MP['sc'])
p32 = max(p21 * CP['sr'] * MP['rc'], p22 * CP['rr'] * MP['rc'])
print(max(p31, p32))

if p32 > p31:
    print("雨天")
    if p32 == p22 * CP['rr'] * MP['rc']:
        print("雨天")
        if p22 == p11 * CP['sr'] * MP['rs']:
            print("晴天")
        else:
            print("雨天")
    else:
        print("晴天")
        if p21 == p12 * CP['rs'] * MP['ss']:
            print("雨天")
        else:
            print("晴天")

else:
    print("晴天")
    if p31 == p21 * CP['ss'] * MP['sc']:
        print("晴天")
    else:
        print("雨天")

0.24
0.043199999999999995
0.01344

雨天
雨天
晴天