Text3Positivesurprisesfromgovernmentr eportsonretailsales,industr ialproduction,andhousinginthepastfewmonthsareleadingeconomiststorevisetheirrealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)forecastsupwardsupportingthenotionthattherecessionendedinDecemberorJanuary.
Bearinmind:Thisrecoverywon’thavethevitalitynormallyassociatedwithanupturn.Economistsnowexpectr ealGDPgrowthofabout1.5inthefirstquarter.That’sbetterthanthe0.4theconsensusprojectedinDecember,butmuchoftheadditionalgrowthwillcomefromaslowerpaceofinventorydrawdowns,notfromsurgingdemand.
Moreover,theeconomywon’tgrowfastenoughtohelpthelabormarketsmuch.TheonlygoodnewsthereisthatjoblessclaimshavefallenbackfromtheirspikeafterSeptember11andthattheircurrentlevelsuggeststhepaceoflayoffsiseasing.
TherecoveryalsodoesnotmeantheFederalReservewillraiseinterestr atessoon.TheJanuarypriceindexesshowthatinflationremainstame.Consequently,theFedcantakeitstimeshiftingmonetarypolicyfromextr emeaccommodationtorelativeneutr ality.
PerhapsthebestnewsfromthelatesteconomicreportswastheJanuarydataonindustr ialproduction.Totaloutputfellonly0.1,itsbestshowingsinceJuly.Factoryoutputwasflat,alsothebestperformanceinsixmonths.Thosenumbersmaynotsoundencouraging,butmanufacturershavebeeninrecessionsincelate2000.Thedatasuggestthatthefactorysectorisfindingabottomfromwhichtostartitsrecovery.
Productionofconsumergoods,forinstance,isalmostbackuptowhereitwasayearago.That’sbecauseconsumerdemandformotorvehiclesandothergoodsandthehousingindustr yremainedhealthyduringtherecession,andtheyarestillgrowinginearly2002.
Besides,boththemonthlyhomebuildingstartsnumberandthehousingmarketindexforthepasttwomonthsarerunningabovetheaveragesforallof2001,suggestingthathome-buildingisofftoagoodstartandprobablywon’tbebigdragonGDPgrowththisyear.
Equallyimportanttotheoutlookishowthesolidhousingmarketwillhelpdemandforhome-relatedgoodsandservices.Traditionally,consumersbuythebulkoftheirfurniture,electr onics,andtextileswithinayearofpurchasingtheirhomes.Thus,spendingonsuchitemswilldowellthisyear,evenascarsalesslipnowthatincentivesarelessattr active.Lookfortheoutputofconsumergoodstotopyear-agolevelincomingmonths.
Eventhebusinessequipmentsectorseemstohavebottomedout.Itsoutputr ose0.4%inJanuary,ledbya0.6%jumpcomputergear.Apickupinordersforcapitalgoodsinthefourthquartersuggeststhatproductionwillkeepincreasing—althoughatarelaxedpace—incomingmonths.
第31题：Americaneconomistsaresurprisedtoseethat______.
［A］theyhavetorevisetheGDPforecastssooften
［B］theirgovernmentisannouncingtheendofarecession
［C］USeconomyisshowingsomesignsofanupturn
［D］GDPgrowthreflectsstr ongerdomesticdemand
正确答案：C这是一道涉及对第一、二段理解的事实细节题。第一段是一句话段落，其主干结构是positivesurprises…leadeconomiststo…supportingthenotionthat…。该段提到政府报告带来的意外惊喜使经济学家将对国民生产总值的预测上调，从而支持了经济衰退期已在12月或1月终止的观点。由一段中的“意外惊喜”和“经济学家上调国民生产总值预测的举措”可知让他们吃惊的是经济状况好转的迹象，即［C］项为正确答案。
第一、二段只提到经济学家对GDP预期的一次调整，无法推出他们频繁地修改。排除［A］项。由第一段可知，政府只报导了各个领域经济发展的好势头，而未宣布经济衰退期的终止。排除［B］项。第二段末句but转折后提到，但是（GDP）增长部分主要是因为存货提用的速度减缓，而不是需求的增长（surgingdemand），由此排除［D］项。
