Text2We’removingintoanotherera,asthetoxiceffectsofthebubbleanditsgraveconsequencesspreadthroughthefinancialsystem.Justacoupleofyearsagoinvestorsdreamedof20percentr eturnsforever.Nowsurveysshowthatthey’redowntoa“realistic”8percentto10percentr ange.
Butwhatifthenextfewyearsturnouttobebelownormalexpectations?MartinBarnersoftheBankCreditAnalystinMontr ealexpectsfuturestockreturnstoaveragejust4percentto6percent.Soundimpossible?Afteramuchsmallerbubblethatburstinthemid-1960sStandard&Poor’s5000stockaveragereturned6.9percentayear(withdividendsreinvested)forthefollowing17years.Fewinvestorsarepreparedforthat.
Rightnowdenialseemstobetheattitudeofchoice.That’stypical,saysLoriLucasofHewitt,theconsultingfirm.Youhatetolookatyourinvestmentswhenthey’regoingdown.Hewitttr acks500,000401(k)accountseveryday,andfindsthatsaversarekeepingtheircontr ibutionsup.Butthey’remuchlessinclinedtoswitchtheirmoneyaround.“It’stheslot-machineeffect,”Lucassays.“Peoplegetmoreinterestedinplayingwhentheythinkthey’vegotahotmachine”—andnothing’shottoday.Theaverageinvestorfeelsoverwhelmed.
Againstallcommonsense,manysaversstillshuttheireyestothedangersofowningtoomuchcompanystock.Inbigcompanieslastyear,asurprising29percentofemployeesheldatleastthreequartersoftheir402(k)intheirownstock.
Youngeremployeesmayhavenochoice.Youoftenhavetowaituntilyou’re50or55beforeyoucansellanycompanystockyougetasamatchingcontr ibution.
Butinsteadofgettingoutwhentheycan,oldparticipantshavebeenholding,too.Onethirdofthepeople60andupchosecompanystockforthreequartersoftheirplan,Hewittr eports.Aretheyinattentive?Loyaltoafault?Sick?It’sasifLucent,EnronandXeroxneverhappened.
Noinvestorshouldgivehisorhertotaltr usttoanyparticularcompany’sstock.Andwhileyou’reatit,thinkhowyou’dbeiffuturestockreturns—averaginggoodyearsandbad—areaspoorasBarnespredicts.
Ifyouaskme,diversifiedstocksremaingoodforthelongrun,withabackupinbonds.ButI,too,amfiguringonreducedreturns.Whatashame.Dearbubble,I’llneverforget.It’stheendofagrandaffair.
第26题：Theinvestors’judgmentofthepresentstockreturnsseemstobe_____.
［A］fanciful
［B］pessimistic
［C］groundless
［D］realistic
正确答案：A第一段提到，投资者几年前的梦想是永远拿到20%的（股票投资）回报。现在调查显示它降到了“现实的”8%至10%的范围。第二段作者先提出疑问：但是如果未来几年里这个值低于正常的期望呢？接着以银行信用分析家MartinBarnes和标准普尔5000指数为例指出，未来股票投资回报率必然是下降的。二段末句作者指出，很少有投资者为此作好了准备。由此可推出，面对股票投资回报下降的趋势，投资者的判断是不够现实的，是幻想的。另外，第一段的dreamedof、realistic的引号、以及第二段soundimpossible后面的问号也都暗示了这一点。因此［A］项正确。
