求一篇英语演讲稿-关于中国经济的

zhutao112 为你提供的下文,是在世界经济衰退背景下,中国经济的表现和何去何从,包括中国经济复苏的迹象等。希望能帮得上你。The Outlook For China's EconomyChina,the world's second largest economy by purchasing power parity,contributed over 10% to global economic output in 2007 and 2008 and is thus a key part of any recovery of the global economy。China faced a severe deceleration of growth in the second half of 2008 based on a number of indicators:GDP,production of electricity,the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI),weakness of auto sales,a fall in residential home sales,manufacturing data and falling imports and exports。In fact,calculated on a quarter-by-quarter basis like most other countries,Chinese growth (which is reported only on a year-on-year basis) was practically zero and even negative by some private sector estimates。However,there are greater signs of economic recovery in March from the depths of the fourth quarter of 2008,and most forward-looking indicators suggest that from the second to the fourth quarter of 2009,growth will accelerate relative to the dismal fourth quarter of 2008 and weak first quarter of 2009。The more optimistic outlook for Chinese growth would require a recovery in the global economy,especially the U。S。,in the second half of 2009,a development that seems more likely to come in 2010。It seems too soon to point to an economic recovery,particularly in the absence of a rebound in demand from the G-3 economies (the U。S。,European Union and Japan) that absorb most of Chinese exports。There are other risks to this scenario。First,the Chinese policy stimulus could turn out to be insufficient,and further stimulus could be delayed。Second,if a "drugged" recovery--via easy money,loose fiscal policy and easy credit--leads to further over-capacity (of which there is some evidence),it could result in rising non-performing loans,falling profits or rising losses。Furthermore,although indicators of private consumption like retail sales have remained relatively robust,they are growing at a slower pace compared to the second half of 2008。The extent of job losses and falling incomes as well as negative consumer confidence may slow consumption further going forward,particularly in urban areas,despite government incentives。Despite the fact that China's aggressive policy response included monetary easing,a scaling up of bank lending and a particularly aggressive scaling up of government investment to offset the contraction in private demand,there is an increased risk that China will grow only in the 5% to 6% range year-on-year in 2009,about half its average growth of the previous five years,and well below potential。Such a growth rate would increase pressures on China's government,as the hard landing has been accompanied by job losses and factory closures as well as implying that Chinese commodity demand could continue to be lower than recent trends。