题文
Nearly two thousand years have passed since a census decreed by Caesar Augustus become part of the greatest story ever told. Many things have changed in the intervening years. The hotel industry worries more about overbuilding than overcrowding, and if they had to meet an unexpected influx, few inns would have a manager to accommodate the weary guests. Now it is the census taker that does the traveling in the fond hope that a highly mobile population will stay long enough to get a good sampling. Methods of gathering, recording, and evaluating information have presumably been improved a great deal. And where then it was the modest purpose of Rome to obtain a simple head count as an adequate basis for levying taxes, now batteries of complicated statistical series furnished by governmental agencies and private organizations are eagerly scanned and interpreted by sages and seers to get a clue to future events. The Bible does not tell us how the Roman census takers made out, and as regards our more immediate concern, the reliability of present day economic forecasting, there are considerable differences of opinion. They were aired at the celebration of the 125th anniversary of the American Statistical Association. There was the thought that business forecasting might well be on its way from an art to a science, and some speakers talked about newfangled computers and high-falutin mathematical system in terms of excitement and endearment which we, at least in our younger years when these things mattered, would have associated more readily with the description of a fair maiden. But others pointed to the deplorable record of highly esteemed forecasts and forecasters with a batting average below that of the Mets, and the President-elect of the Association cautioned that “high powered statistical methods are usually in order where the facts are crude and inadequate, the exact contrary of what crude and inadequate statisticians assume.” We left his birthday party somewhere between hope and despair and with the conviction, not really newly acquired, that proper statistical methods applied to ascertainable facts have their merits in economic forecasting as long as neither forecaster nor public is deluded into mistaking the delineation of probabilities and trends for a prediction of certainties of mathematical exactitude.小题1: Taxation in Roman days apparently was based on
[A]. wealth. [B]. mobility. [C]. population. [D]. census takers.
小题2:The American Statistical Association
[A]. is converting statistical study from an art to a science.
[B]. has an excellent record in business forecasting.
[C]. is neither hopeful nor pessimistic.
[D]. speaks with mathematical exactitude.
小题3: The message the author wishes the reader to get is
[A]. statisticians have not advanced since the days of the Roman.
[B]. statistics is not as yet a science.
[C]. statisticians love their machine.
[D].computer is hopeful.
小题4:The “greatest story ever told” referred to in the passage is the story of
[A]. Christmas. [B]. The Mets.
[C]. Moses. [D]. Roman Census Takers. 题型：未知难度：其他题型
答案
小题1:C
小题2:A
小题3:B
小题4:A
解析
小题1:C. 人口。答案在第六句，“那时罗马计算人头作为征税的适当基础，目的很简单。”
A. 财富。 B. 流动性。 C. 人口调查员。
小题2: A. 正把统计研究从文科转变成理科。这是从第六句开始讲的一种观点。“现在，政府机构和私人组织的一系列复杂的统计数字，由智者和先知人物殷切地浏览和解释以取得预先外未来事件的线索。圣经并没有告诉我们罗马的人口调查员是怎么调查统计的。至于我们当前更加关心的问题：目前经济预测的可靠性，意见分歧很大。美国统计协会125周年庆祝活动上，人们在大肆宣扬这些不同观点。有一种说法是经济预测可能正从文科转向科学（理科）发展。有些人兴高采烈大谈新型计算机和非常高级数学系统。”作者虽然没有明说，明眼人一看便知，艺术向科学转变正是美国统计协会在把统计学从文科转向理科。所以A. 对。
B. 在商业预测方面具有杰出的记录。不对。实际上“平均成功率还低于the Mets”
C. 既没有希望也不乐观。文内没有提及。只提作者他们半喜半忧离开协会。
D. 以数学的精确性来说话。见下道题解释。协会部分人却有此看法“数学精确性。”
小题3:B. 统计学（到现在为止）还不是一门科学（理科）。文章最后几句话。“连统计协会的主席也告戒说高能统计法在实际材料原始和不允许的地方一般发挥正常。这跟低级的，不合适的统计员所假定的正好相反。我们怀着忧“希”掺半的心情离开周年庆祝宴会，怀着确实不是新近才有的信念，相信应用于确切材料上恰当的统计法在经济预测中有它的贡献，只要预测人员和公众不受蒙蔽，误呆板所述概率和趋势当作数学精确无比的预测就行。”
A. 统计员从罗马时代起就没向前进步过。 C. 统计员爱计算机。这两项文内没有提到。 D. 计算机前程远大。文内只讲了有些人怀着兴高采烈的心情大讲新型计算机和非常高级数学“系统”，暗示了计算机大有希望。但不是所有人都这样认为的。最重要的计算机的应用并不能改变这个事实：统计学不是立刻，而是文科。所以B. 对。
小题4: A. 基督，圣诞节，指基督的诞生。圣经中的一个故事。
B. the Mets. 圣经中率领希伯莱人出埃及的领袖，也作放债的犹太人讲。 C. 摩西。 D. 罗马人口调查员。
考点
据考高分专家说，试题“Nearly two thousand .....”主要考查你对 [历史文化类阅读 ]考点的理解。历史文化类阅读
什么是历史文化类阅读：
本类题型常用的方式是夹叙夹议。叙述的目的是为了议，所以要把握其议才是主要方面。阅读这类文章，先弄清其引入的话题，再弄清里面人物对其不同的看法，然后理解作者本身对话题的观点看法或思考。
历史文化类阅读技巧：
【题型说明】历史文化类阅读理解文章属高考常选材料之一。这类文章常涉及历史、文化、法制、宗教等方面的文学艺术、发明创造、文化遗产保护、宗教与文化、风俗与习惯、道德与法制、中外文学名著节选、等等。这类材料的命题点往往落在主旨大意题、事实细节题上。
【答题方法】在做这类阅读理解题时，我们应注意以下几个方面：
1、采用先题后文：先读题目，再带着问题读文章。这类阅读理解文章相对来说事实细节题稍多一点，如果带着问题读文章，有利于我们抓细节。
2、先做细节题。因为做完了局部性的事实细节题后，自然会加深我们对文章的理解，这样更有利于做主旨大意题。
3、重点敲定主旨题。主旨大意题提问的形式主要有两大类：一类是Main idea型；一类是Topic或Title型。
在解答这类试题时应注意以下几点：
a．读首句抓大意。
文化教育类阅读理解文章多采用说明文、议论文体裁，而这类文章大都采用文章段落的中心，即主题句在文章开头。因此，要寻找这类文章的主旨大意就需要研究文章的首句。
b．读尾句抓大意。
有时这类文章的主题句安排在文章的结尾，作为对全篇的总结。
c．读首段抓大意。
有些文章或段落的开头和结尾部分都有主题句。这种结构是为了突出主题思想而使用两次点题的写作方法。这两个主题句在句子结构和用词上有所不同，而且在内容上前句和后句也不重复。
d．从段落中抓大意。
有些文章或段落的主题句在文章中，这种文章或段落往往以一句话或几句话引出要表达的主题，在主题句出现后，再举例子陈述细节或继续论证。
e．归纳要点抓大意。
有些文章或段落无明显的主题句，只是暗示性地体现主题。这就要求同学们在阅读过程中根据文中所叙述的事实或线索来概括总结主旨大意。
